In general, the harvest in Ukraine is now evaluated and forecast by everyone: officials, politicians, traders, producers, analysts, scientists, etc. It is interesting that the initial data are the same in all of them, but the forecast figures for grain production in 2023 are different.
In autumn, for the 2023 harvest, farmers reduced the area for wheat to 4.2 million hectares. We will not repeat the reasons. Let’s limit ourselves to the comprehensive word “war.” Add 270,000 hectares of spring wheat, and voila: we have 4.5 million hectares of wheat to harvest, or 0.9 million hectares less than in 2022. Compared to 2021, this year’s area to be harvested is smaller by as much as 2.5 million hectares.
Analysts conducted a survey among farmers based on the operational data of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine regarding the areas of winter and spring crops. And now, using yield calculations per region, they announce a possible gross harvest of wheat at the level of 23.5–24 million tons (in mass after finishing). This is significantly higher than current market expectations.
Analysts of the American NASA Harvest (a food security and agriculture program) are also optimistic. Based on satellite data, they are sure that wheat production in Ukraine can be from 25 to 26.5 million tons, of which 4 million tons are grain in the fields occupied by the Russian Federation.
And here is the official version (from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine): 46 million tons of grain, of which wheat is about 17 million tons.
The version of the American colleagues, whose data is mostly trusted by the general population, is 17.5 million tons of wheat (USDA June report).
But the approach of agricultural scientists is most impressive. They have as many as three scenarios. Optimistic: harvest — 55 million tons, in particular wheat — 19.5 million tons. Average: harvest — 51.5 million tons, wheat — 18.4 million tons. Pessimistic: harvest — 47.8 million tons, wheat — 17.3 million tons.
Meanwhile, let us remind you that there were worse years in Ukraine (2000 — 10 million tons of wheat) and better years (2021 — a record 32 million tons).
An interesting memory: in 1990, Ukraine received 51 million tons of grain, of which 30 million tons were wheat. The yield then was 4 t/ha, and the current world record, by the way, is almost 18 t/ha.
Currently, the average crop capacity in the country is 4 t/ha. Although there are farms where the yield is at the level of 3 t/ha, there are also those that harvest 8 t/ha.
As always, nature and the weather remind us from time to time that they are treacherous ladies. Sometimes no technology can handle their vagaries: rain/drought/hail/freeze. True, this year the winter crops overwintered more or less, but let’s note that the reality is reflected only by the grain collected from a specific field.
Public-trade version: there will be more than enough wheat in Ukraine in 2023 to ensure domestic demand and food security. Meanwhile, a message from traders is somewhat alarming: more than 7 million Ukrainians have left, so the demand for food wheat is lower. The rest can be safely sold to Africa, EU markets, and the rest of the world. The war and the vagaries of nature (as in 2000) seem to have been forgotten.
Of the three export grains, barley fell the most. The harvest is not very high, so there is little to sell.
It is a little early to talk about corn, although the total harvest may be 26 million tons (the average version from scientists).
The trading community talks about slightly smaller cobs (24 million tons) and estimates possible exports at the level of 20 million tons. Regarding wheat – 15 million tons due to the lower yield.
The trend of the season: no one cares that the harvest is much smaller. Everyone says that there will be enough bread both to feed the domestic market and to satisfy foreign consumers.