The onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion and the blockade of Ukrainian seaports have altered the geography of agricultural product exports.
According to the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club (UABC), if the pre-war share of agricultural product exports to Europe was 32% in 2021, it has increased to 59% in the first 10 months of 2023.
However, this growth is driven by necessity, as supplies to other regions have significantly decreased. The share of exports to African countries has decreased from 14% to 7%, to Asia from 19% to 12%, and to Southeast Asia from 13% to 4%, as reported by the Ukrainian agrobusiness association (UABC).
The main reason for these changes is the blockade of Ukrainian seaports by Russian forces.
The development of alternative routes, only possible through the territory of EU countries, has led Ukrainian agrarians to seek buyers in European countries.
Simultaneously, shipments to African and Asian countries during the war became possible only through the operation of the grain corridor in cooperation with the UN and Turkey, as well as a temporary grain corridor currently in use.
“The only way to restore exports to traditional markets for Ukraine is to ensure the security of maritime export routes and increase shipment volumes through this channel,” added the association.
It is worth recalling that in July, Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and declared that it would consider any civilian ship leaving Ukrainian ports as a military target. Subsequently, Russia began mass attacks on Ukrainian ports on the Danube, using “kamikaze” strikes on grain silos and transshipment complexes.
In response, Ukraine established its temporary route from the ports of Odessa. Since September 16, 32 vessels with a total capacity of about 1.4 million tons have entered Ukrainian Black Sea ports through the temporary corridor. This total capacity roughly corresponds to the volume of agricultural products exported in the first month of the “Black Sea Grain Initiative” last summer, supported by Turkey and the UN.
However, it is only a third of the volumes exported from Ukrainian ports during the months when it operated most efficiently.
Initially, ship owners were hesitant to use the new route due to Russia’s threats to consider any ships sailing to Ukraine as potential targets. However, despite the growing number of vessels, security risks remain unchanged.
In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a visit to China, announced that Russian aircraft equipped with “Dagger” missiles would patrol the neutral zone over the Black Sea without specifying their targets.
